Analysis:
'Anwar factor' lives on
There
were demonstrations following Anwar's arrest
By BBC
News Online's Mangai Balasegaram
The crowds outside Malaysia's High Court may
have dispersed, but the Anwar Ibrahim case is far from over.
The repercussions stemming from one of
Malaysia's longest and most sensational trials, which ended on Tuesday with a
nine-year sentence for sodomy handed down to the former deputy prime minister,
will continue to be felt for some time.
Anwar faces life in jail until the year 2014
as his sentence has been added to one he is already serving for abuse of power.
But even from behind bars Prime Minister
Mahathir Mohamad's nemesis may well continue to be a thorn in his side.
Rallying point
"The issue is going to remain as long as
Anwar is inside [jail]," said Lim Guan Eng, national vice-chairman of the
opposition Democratic Action Party and a former MP who was himself jailed for
sedition.
"Out of sight doesn't mean out of
mind."
Anwar: A rallying point for the reform movement |
"[Nelson] Mandela was in jail for 27
years, but that did not diminish his status," he told BBC News Online.
Mr Lim, who spent 18 months in jail for
criticising the government's handling of a rape case involving a 15-year-old
girl and a leading politician, said he saw the reformasi (reform) movement
continuing.
Anwar has been a rallying point for the
protest movement.
"It may quieten down but it could spark
up again" with a new crisis, Mr Lim said.
M Nasir, chairman of the opposition Socialist
Party, which is fighting to be officially registered, said the case had changed
public perception of the government irrevocably.
"The blind support for the government is
now gone. People have lost confidence now in our courts, our democracy,"
he said.
Islamic fundamentalism
But some observers say the reformasi movement
is already running out of steam.
They point out that the number of protesters
on the streets has dwindled from tens of thousands to a few hundred. Anger at
Anwar's conviction is still largely limited to his and Dr Mahathir's own Malay
community - and to the premier's United Malays National Organisation (Umno),
the key party in the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition.
Religion plays a key role in politics |
Many non-Malays associate Anwar with rising
Islamic fundamentalism.
Dr Mahathir's government retained its
two-thirds majority in elections last year - a win largely attributed to
non-Malay votes.
Moreover, Keadilan, the party led by Anwar's
wife, Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, won only a handful of seats.
It was the opposition Islamic party, Pas,
which benefited most from the anger seen on the streets.
"Non-Muslims naturally feel very
threatened. They fear Islam will grow under this issue," says Mr Lim.
"The policies of Pas, which are quite archaic, of course don't help."
Pas has since banned most forms of
entertainment and severely limited the sale of alcohol in the two states that
it controls.
Umno's position
Mr Lim believes Umno will be particularly
hard hit by the Anwar factor.
"I don't see [Umno] regaining support
among the Malays as long as Mahathir is there - particularly among the young.
The PM may be haunted by Anwar |
"But if Mahathir leaves, then the whole
scenario will change."
However, Mr Nur Jaslan, a member of Umno's
Youth Central Committee, doubted whether strong public feeling could translate
into votes for the opposition.
He pointed out that several Keadilan members
had recently rejoined Umno, and that the relationship between the various
opposition parties was breaking up.
"The dissatisfaction among Malays will
continue - people perceive the system as unfair. But whether that can be
amalgamated into a united opposition is doubtful," he said